Matthias Schranner

Matthias Schranner comments on:

Iran communicates threats

The conflict between Iran and the USA in the Persian Gulf becomes more serious. First, the government in Teheran threatened to block oil transports in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz—and now, in addition, it announces maneuvers with “long-range missiles”. 

The threat has an important function in a negotiation process — a negotiation party demonstrates power and forces the opposing party to act.
First, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, now come the long-range missiles, and in early January, other threats will follow.

There is no danger yet, because the threats were communicated “just” by deputies, but not by the decision makers.
So far, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad kept silent in the verbal power struggle. And both the Iranian ministry of defense and the Iranian ministry of external affairs kept quiet in the background.

In no event, however, shall the United States express a counter-threat. This would be the action that Iran desires.  

It will become exciting in January, when the first sanctions by Iran should come. But right now, nothing can happen; in our view, the escalation is still in the “yellow” range.


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