Is The Iran Nuclear Deal in Jeopardy?
The buzz ahead of this week’s U.N. General Assembly is picking up momentum, as captured by our Global Negotiation Map. The U.S. President faces a tough decision on whether to scrap or weaken the deal that was brokered by the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, Germany and France; President Trump has repeatedly referred to the agreement as “the worst deal ever negotiated”, a view that is heavily supported by Israel, one of the closest U.S. allies. On the other hand, the European powers that have committed to the deal, are expected to urge President Trump to stay committed to the agreement.
All parties involved have one shared goal and different motives all underlined by a common denominator; stability, power & influence and money respectively. The European leaders seek stability in the region to tap into the Iranian market, Iranians seek foreign direct investments (FDI) from cash-rich Western groups, whereas the U.S. and its closest ally in the region, Israel, are skeptical about Iran’s economic uplift due to the deal, that could fund its weapons program and further highlight the country as destabilizing factor in the region.
The easing of sanctions against Iran in 2016, opened up the path to an untapped market for Western companies like Total, which is expected to invest $4.8bn to develop the Iranian South Pars gas field. Such deals, although legit and in line with the Iran Nuclear Deal, are perceived as either opportunities or threats for countries that committed to the agreement.
Will President Trump’s decision undermine the treaty and further deepen the gap among the countries that have agreed to it? It remains to be seen.